I have a feeling Missouri pulls the upset at Baylor

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Really looking forward to tomorrow’s slate of hoops especially number 3 Baylor versus number 5 Missouri in Waco.  Baylor is pissed after getting slapped in the face at Allen Fieldhouse and will be looking to avoid two straight losses after starting out 17-0.  The Bears are playing at home and need this game more than Missouri does.  Missouri is effectively playing with house money, because at the beginning of the year you mark this game down as a loss and it doesn’t diminish any chance of the big 12 title.

Just like any other team the rest of the way for Missouri they will be undersized, but to me, Baylor’s style of play I think plays well into the Tiger’s hand even though so many people are pointing out what a mismatch it is.  Of course Baylor will out rebound the Tigers right under the basket, but at Kansas, Baylor failed to hustle for long rebounds and allowed double digit offensive boards and that’s where I see Missouri outhustling Baylor.  There should be plenty of long rebounds if the Tigers do what they should and usually do, and put up a large amount of shots from behind the arc.  It will all come down to if those shots are falling on the road in an environment we don’t really know a whole lot about.  Not once have we ever heard of how loud it gets at Baylor or how passionate their student section is, because usually Baylor is irrelevant.  Missouri needs to come out firing and are very capable of getting out to a big lead early and forcing Baylor to slow the game down to get back in it.

I figure Quincy Acy will be on English when Steve Moore and Ricardo aren’t in the game at the same time and that will be a key matchup to watch.  Acy will have his way on the offensive end when English is on him, but I also think it’s vice versa as well.  If English can bring Acy out to the perimeter on defense it will help Missouri on the offensive glass.  That’s just the man to man matchup problems that Missouri can exploit.  Baylor’s 2-3 zone doesn’t hold up well against teams that have good ball movement and Missouri has shown they can move it around efficiently in Frank Haith’s system with the best of them.  The zone also leaves open shooters on the perimeter with quick releases great looks and who has a quicker release than Marcus Denmon and Michael Dixon.

Pierre Jackson has taken advantage of his speed against teams that can’t match, but when he faces teams with guards that can hit that same speed like Taylor at Kansas and Truck Bryant at WVU they tend to struggle.  Missouri is probably the fastest overall team in the nation with their small line up and have some of the quickest hands on the defensive side with Phil Pressey and Dixon picking pockets and will need to take advantage there and get Jackson to turn it over.  Kansas State forced 18 turnovers against the Bears and Missouri can cause a lot more havoc on an offense than the wildcats. 

Missouri needs to go up tempo and not get into a half court offensive battle with Baylor, if they do that they will lose.  The Tigers need to stick to the bread and butter, shoot about 30-35 3’s and hope to connect on half.  I see Missouri jumping out to a quick lead out of the gate and Baylor not responding well enough until too late and the Tigers hold on for an 81-75 victory.  Although if they are missing their deep ball, Baylor could run away, we’ll see tomorrow, but I have a feeling Tiger fans at bars across Missouri will be happy and over served by 3pm.

There is my one positive Missouri write up for the year.

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~ by kcuncensored on January 20, 2012.

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